* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/30/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 52 59 67 77 85 89 92 94 93 91 90 88 86 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 52 59 67 77 85 89 92 94 93 91 90 88 86 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 54 62 73 84 93 97 97 95 91 87 84 83 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 7 6 9 7 12 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 3 6 0 7 8 10 7 3 2 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 97 107 78 83 91 112 110 61 69 75 93 82 139 131 123 216 211 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 157 154 152 156 155 152 151 151 150 145 144 145 146 142 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.7 -50.3 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 57 61 62 59 54 50 51 53 52 48 44 46 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 17 19 20 24 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 128 112 95 94 110 116 127 121 126 110 104 106 119 117 116 118 104 200 MB DIV 26 10 -1 -14 0 24 44 7 39 28 19 35 36 16 37 34 13 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 3 4 4 2 1 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 1864 1753 1644 1546 1451 1281 1102 937 810 739 666 571 473 447 450 420 425 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.6 139.8 140.9 142.0 143.0 144.8 146.8 148.7 150.3 151.5 152.6 153.8 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 8 7 5 6 7 5 2 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 24 23 13 27 25 24 28 30 29 30 26 28 30 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 32. 40. 44. 47. 49. 48. 46. 45. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 138.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/30/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 19.5% 16.9% 14.8% 11.6% 21.2% 19.1% 17.2% Logistic: 1.1% 6.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.9% 6.4% 5.3% 4.0% 7.5% 6.5% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% 30.0% 98.0% SDCON: 2.3% 8.4% 5.2% 3.6% 3.0% 7.2% 18.2% 52.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/30/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##