* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/30/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 44 53 63 73 82 86 87 89 90 88 90 90 89 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 44 53 63 73 82 86 87 89 90 88 90 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 44 50 59 70 81 87 89 87 85 83 82 82 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 10 7 9 5 4 7 7 5 7 7 6 7 4 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 1 0 3 4 5 9 12 8 8 2 2 2 11 SHEAR DIR 88 99 94 76 69 84 82 53 52 74 86 74 103 187 154 225 182 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 157 157 153 153 154 153 153 149 147 147 147 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 57 58 61 58 54 52 49 49 48 46 44 38 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 16 20 21 23 25 25 23 23 23 21 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 120 128 115 99 97 113 126 119 125 120 110 109 105 122 119 124 117 200 MB DIV 48 39 17 2 -8 32 45 20 20 37 37 14 21 37 43 13 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1963 1851 1741 1634 1530 1371 1206 1070 952 848 757 659 558 456 350 286 298 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.8 139.9 141.0 142.1 143.8 145.5 147.1 148.4 149.6 150.7 151.9 153.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 24 24 22 17 28 25 24 27 25 25 28 31 23 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 8. 13. 12. 10. 8. 8. 5. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 4. 13. 23. 33. 42. 46. 47. 49. 50. 48. 50. 50. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.2 137.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/30/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 15.9% 13.7% 12.6% 9.6% 18.4% 17.7% 18.8% Logistic: 0.5% 4.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.8% 5.0% 4.4% 3.2% 6.3% 6.0% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/30/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##