* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/29/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 49 56 68 76 83 88 89 90 91 87 87 88 88 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 49 56 68 76 83 88 89 90 91 87 87 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 44 45 52 63 75 86 92 94 92 89 86 86 86 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 6 9 6 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 6 7 9 6 5 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 86 85 107 100 69 76 66 72 37 36 35 73 97 160 173 155 135 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 156 157 154 152 154 152 153 150 148 148 147 146 144 141 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 63 59 57 55 53 49 48 50 52 50 48 44 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 17 18 22 23 25 26 26 25 24 21 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 96 119 133 121 107 106 119 128 120 119 106 105 103 115 117 114 110 200 MB DIV 23 57 66 43 18 25 46 15 10 25 26 30 36 46 39 30 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 4 2 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 2087 1965 1844 1738 1634 1439 1277 1130 983 876 805 724 620 537 456 380 314 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.4 137.6 138.8 139.9 141.0 143.0 144.7 146.3 148.0 149.2 150.1 151.1 152.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 5 4 6 6 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 23 24 24 15 27 28 23 26 27 25 28 28 31 26 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 8. 11. 15. 17. 16. 14. 12. 8. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 28. 36. 43. 48. 49. 50. 51. 47. 47. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.1 136.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.20 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 18.2% 16.0% 14.0% 11.2% 20.1% 18.7% 18.9% Logistic: 0.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.5% 5.8% 4.8% 3.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 34.0% 48.0% SDCON: 1.9% 8.7% 4.9% 3.4% 2.9% 7.4% 20.1% 27.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##