* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/29/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 47 52 61 70 77 84 88 92 93 90 90 90 90 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 47 52 61 70 77 84 88 92 93 90 90 90 90 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 49 56 65 75 85 92 94 91 87 84 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 12 9 9 10 6 4 5 5 5 1 5 7 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 1 -2 2 4 1 7 10 11 7 3 10 6 SHEAR DIR 89 84 99 112 106 80 96 90 30 11 42 106 128 147 192 194 219 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 155 157 156 152 154 153 153 152 151 151 149 147 146 145 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 63 62 56 56 52 49 50 50 53 49 47 50 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 17 19 20 22 24 24 23 20 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 89 97 112 124 112 96 109 113 121 117 105 101 110 109 113 114 131 200 MB DIV 23 24 51 63 39 11 12 24 5 31 43 60 25 39 37 41 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 3 6 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 2224 2087 1951 1831 1712 1497 1323 1178 1006 914 870 773 631 564 523 478 436 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.5 137.9 139.1 140.3 142.5 144.4 145.9 147.9 148.9 149.4 150.6 152.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 4 4 9 8 4 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 19 25 24 16 21 28 22 25 27 27 29 30 30 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 8. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 21. 30. 37. 44. 48. 52. 53. 50. 50. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.7 135.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 19.9% 16.4% 14.0% 10.9% 20.3% 18.9% 21.4% Logistic: 0.9% 6.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.9% 6.1% 5.0% 3.7% 7.0% 6.4% 7.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 10.0% 36.0% 96.0% SDCON: 2.0% 8.9% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 8.5% 21.2% 51.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##