* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/29/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 45 53 59 71 78 85 87 91 87 87 86 87 87 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 45 53 59 71 78 85 87 91 87 87 86 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 50 57 66 76 86 92 93 89 84 81 79 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 13 13 9 10 6 5 7 7 7 3 6 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 0 3 1 6 7 8 3 5 2 8 SHEAR DIR 81 93 93 101 119 78 78 78 98 28 55 50 131 143 201 254 265 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 155 155 157 154 152 150 149 152 144 139 138 141 147 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 67 66 70 71 65 62 57 51 52 47 46 40 41 41 36 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 18 17 21 22 24 25 26 23 24 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 81 88 97 110 127 120 107 118 129 131 124 117 134 122 130 131 124 200 MB DIV 26 36 37 57 82 42 19 42 24 50 32 20 5 15 34 24 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 1 1 5 5 3 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 2299 2215 2130 2055 1981 1775 1600 1381 1205 1101 1002 867 666 602 634 550 335 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.3 136.1 136.8 137.6 139.6 141.3 143.5 145.3 146.4 147.4 148.9 151.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 9 9 9 10 7 5 6 9 8 1 2 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 22 20 24 22 19 28 28 21 23 19 23 18 21 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 8. 11. 14. 14. 15. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 19. 31. 38. 45. 47. 51. 47. 47. 46. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.6 134.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -26.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.14 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.8% 14.9% 13.1% 0.0% 19.0% 17.5% 17.6% Logistic: 0.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.7% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 24.0% SDCON: 1.9% 5.8% 3.6% 2.7% 0.5% 4.2% 4.5% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##