* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/29/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 42 49 57 66 75 84 90 89 93 92 92 90 91 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 42 49 57 66 75 84 90 89 93 92 92 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 48 53 60 68 79 88 89 87 85 84 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 11 11 12 8 6 3 1 6 7 3 1 5 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 0 0 6 5 7 7 3 5 4 6 SHEAR DIR 67 76 88 80 90 106 77 75 90 20 21 43 60 82 155 188 195 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 156 157 154 155 156 153 152 150 149 144 140 139 139 140 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 65 69 68 68 70 63 61 59 56 49 45 47 44 40 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 17 17 18 20 22 24 22 24 23 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 76 85 85 92 96 126 103 103 104 115 136 113 117 114 114 123 124 200 MB DIV 21 18 23 28 42 53 58 54 52 41 60 -1 22 23 58 36 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 6 5 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 2378 2311 2243 2167 2090 1927 1741 1542 1366 1208 1042 877 730 618 546 476 392 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.5 135.1 135.8 136.5 138.1 139.9 141.8 143.6 145.2 146.7 148.4 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 16 18 22 20 25 24 20 28 23 22 21 19 21 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 10. 11. 9. 9. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 17. 26. 35. 44. 50. 49. 53. 52. 52. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.4 133.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.3% 12.5% 11.5% 0.0% 17.0% 16.4% 17.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9% 0.0% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 55.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.4% 3.2% 2.4% 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 30.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/29/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##