* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/28/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 41 43 51 60 68 80 87 95 98 101 99 99 96 98 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 41 43 51 60 68 80 87 95 98 101 99 99 96 98 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 43 47 54 63 73 84 92 96 95 92 89 85 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 8 6 12 10 8 5 4 0 3 4 1 4 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 -1 0 1 0 0 4 0 4 7 7 4 2 6 3 3 SHEAR DIR 66 81 102 96 74 95 62 94 70 122 15 51 6 163 87 113 136 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 155 155 157 154 154 157 150 150 148 149 142 139 139 142 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 70 68 69 66 63 59 57 52 52 54 58 55 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 19 19 23 23 27 27 29 28 28 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 90 93 95 118 131 110 109 119 110 104 115 114 113 126 133 200 MB DIV 28 29 42 45 57 74 58 65 60 48 39 19 47 67 52 53 7 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 5 6 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 2449 2384 2319 2265 2210 2031 1829 1683 1459 1297 1163 1015 844 735 666 582 486 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.1 133.7 134.3 134.8 135.3 137.0 138.9 140.3 142.5 144.1 145.3 146.8 148.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 7 9 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 21 18 19 22 25 24 22 23 29 22 23 19 17 19 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 13. 17. 16. 17. 14. 13. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 11. 20. 28. 40. 47. 55. 58. 61. 59. 59. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.4 133.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.16 0.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.11 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.9% 13.1% 11.7% 0.0% 17.7% 17.0% 16.4% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0% 0.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.0% 4.2% 2.7% 2.5% 0.0% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##