* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/28/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 43 47 54 64 73 83 91 93 96 97 96 98 96 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 43 47 54 64 73 83 91 93 96 97 96 98 96 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 43 46 51 60 70 82 90 93 92 88 87 88 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 17 13 10 14 7 9 6 7 3 4 3 5 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 4 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 3 6 10 6 12 7 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 62 63 81 100 92 89 102 72 105 76 46 6 347 100 91 90 143 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 155 155 156 156 155 153 156 152 150 146 147 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 69 69 68 68 63 61 60 53 53 54 58 57 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 16 16 18 20 21 24 26 27 27 28 26 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 75 86 88 94 126 121 118 121 108 108 109 110 107 105 111 200 MB DIV 15 22 34 27 37 58 65 61 45 61 35 48 34 46 34 73 62 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 3 6 5 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 2493 2467 2441 2381 2321 2182 1993 1825 1639 1464 1301 1151 1003 878 766 682 609 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.7 132.9 133.1 133.7 134.2 135.5 137.3 138.9 140.7 142.4 144.0 145.5 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 23 21 21 21 25 23 24 22 29 22 22 17 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 14. 13. 13. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 14. 24. 33. 43. 51. 53. 56. 57. 56. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 132.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -10.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##