* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 44 49 56 64 71 80 88 90 93 95 95 96 94 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 44 49 56 64 71 80 88 90 93 95 95 96 94 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 48 53 58 65 75 84 88 91 91 90 90 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 15 12 17 16 7 7 8 5 2 4 5 2 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 8 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 5 9 7 8 6 11 9 10 SHEAR DIR 57 63 70 90 98 62 84 61 98 70 87 7 18 47 80 35 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 153 155 156 155 152 153 154 152 152 148 147 148 144 142 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 66 67 66 65 62 60 57 56 51 49 49 53 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 16 17 18 19 21 23 22 23 25 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 66 72 89 95 113 122 127 121 115 104 108 121 121 122 124 200 MB DIV 19 29 30 64 69 52 52 42 53 45 59 25 26 59 80 44 22 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 2 5 7 7 3 LAND (KM) 2493 2495 2497 2456 2414 2265 2096 1908 1722 1541 1379 1220 1060 943 852 720 563 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.0 132.9 132.7 133.0 133.4 134.8 136.4 138.2 139.9 141.7 143.4 145.0 146.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 19 22 23 18 22 20 24 24 20 28 23 21 21 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 10. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 4. 10. 16. 24. 31. 40. 48. 50. 53. 55. 55. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.6 133.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.11 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.4% 12.6% 10.8% 8.1% 17.1% 16.0% 15.5% Logistic: 0.4% 3.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.5% 4.4% 3.7% 2.7% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.1% 4.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##