* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/28/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 53 61 70 78 84 90 92 95 96 95 92 91 90 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 53 61 70 78 84 90 92 95 96 95 92 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 50 56 62 71 80 90 95 95 93 91 90 88 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 12 11 12 13 6 7 13 12 9 10 4 3 7 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 10 9 5 2 -1 0 2 2 5 5 2 2 4 7 10 SHEAR DIR 52 59 52 49 74 52 65 63 89 84 74 50 44 40 356 1 29 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 155 155 154 154 153 153 154 150 151 148 145 141 141 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 62 62 66 68 68 65 63 57 55 51 48 50 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 15 17 19 20 23 23 24 24 24 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 32 49 55 60 66 85 87 112 125 125 102 98 99 103 110 110 102 200 MB DIV 55 47 45 48 44 61 68 21 41 57 58 22 27 11 54 30 10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 6 8 5 LAND (KM) 2447 2455 2464 2443 2423 2325 2176 2022 1834 1644 1490 1338 1199 1054 912 803 711 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.5 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.6 133.4 133.2 133.3 133.4 134.2 135.6 137.1 138.9 140.8 142.4 143.9 145.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 20 22 21 20 20 24 23 19 20 30 23 19 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 26. 35. 43. 49. 55. 57. 60. 61. 60. 57. 56. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 133.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.4% 15.3% 12.4% 8.9% 19.3% 18.2% 19.6% Logistic: 15.7% 51.1% 19.4% 14.8% 1.2% 5.3% 1.2% 4.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 8.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 26.6% 12.2% 9.3% 3.4% 8.5% 6.6% 7.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.2% 19.3% 10.1% 6.1% 2.7% 6.7% 6.3% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/28/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##