* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 52 56 63 71 79 83 87 92 97 99 98 95 94 90 V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 52 56 63 71 79 83 87 92 97 99 98 95 94 90 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 53 59 65 71 77 83 88 93 95 95 94 92 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 13 11 8 13 11 11 9 4 4 3 7 4 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 8 11 11 6 -1 0 0 2 9 11 6 2 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 20 69 74 68 59 62 59 87 61 112 68 111 52 135 125 140 126 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 154 153 154 154 153 151 152 152 152 150 150 148 144 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 65 62 62 63 66 67 66 60 61 59 60 57 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 14 14 15 15 15 17 17 18 19 21 22 23 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 48 56 68 76 85 103 110 126 101 89 83 83 81 83 82 200 MB DIV 93 65 42 43 37 39 60 78 36 76 47 47 50 54 72 65 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 2412 2447 2483 2489 2496 2430 2299 2173 2053 1933 1805 1702 1634 1561 1498 1447 1443 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 17 17 17 24 23 22 22 19 24 23 23 23 27 22 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 15. 14. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 28. 36. 44. 48. 52. 57. 62. 64. 63. 60. 59. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 134.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.81 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 21.1% 15.8% 12.9% 9.2% 18.8% 17.7% 19.2% Logistic: 15.2% 42.5% 19.2% 11.8% 0.8% 2.6% 0.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 15.6% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 13.8% 23.0% 12.1% 8.4% 3.3% 7.4% 6.5% 7.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.4% 16.5% 8.5% 5.2% 2.6% 5.7% 4.7% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##