* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/05/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 49 41 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 49 41 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 54 50 42 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 17 18 21 21 21 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 7 8 8 13 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 246 235 232 221 230 246 265 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 120 116 113 114 117 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.5 -49.4 -49.2 -49.1 -49.5 -49.9 -50.5 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 35 37 35 36 37 34 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 25 24 21 17 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 58 54 45 41 33 10 -9 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 15 -1 31 36 14 -1 -51 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 9 11 6 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1324 1267 1210 1174 1140 1067 937 784 636 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.2 142.8 143.4 143.9 144.3 145.3 146.9 149.0 151.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -33. -41. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.2 142.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/05/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 613.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.55 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 14.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/05/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##