* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/05/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 65 60 51 43 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 65 60 51 43 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 64 61 53 44 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 15 17 21 21 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 5 7 8 14 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 232 246 236 231 226 231 265 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 120 119 117 112 116 120 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.3 -49.5 -49.5 -49.2 -49.4 -49.7 -50.3 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 36 35 36 34 37 35 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 26 25 22 20 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 67 61 56 41 36 16 1 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 17 15 5 34 34 21 -23 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 7 5 10 10 6 -1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1382 1311 1242 1207 1174 1103 996 846 688 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.7 23.4 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.3 143.0 143.4 143.8 144.7 146.1 148.0 150.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 6 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -24. -32. -40. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.6 141.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/05/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 712.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.10 -0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.57 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 15.2% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/05/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##