* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/04/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 66 63 60 51 46 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 63 60 51 46 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 64 61 55 47 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 14 16 20 24 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 4 8 8 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 233 232 244 241 225 227 247 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 120 119 120 113 115 117 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.5 -49.3 -49.5 -49.3 -49.0 -49.5 -49.9 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 35 36 38 37 36 39 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 26 26 24 22 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 64 60 52 40 28 8 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 15 8 27 33 29 26 -12 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 7 9 6 14 9 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1475 1388 1304 1256 1210 1137 1039 928 773 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.3 23.7 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.7 141.5 142.4 142.9 143.4 144.3 145.6 147.0 149.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -24. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -24. -29. -40. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.5 140.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/04/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.13 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 696.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 -0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.71 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.35 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 14.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/04/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##