* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/04/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 73 69 62 55 48 39 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 73 69 62 55 48 39 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 76 72 69 62 55 46 36 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 11 11 17 21 25 27 24 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 0 1 3 4 5 8 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 256 262 245 228 233 235 235 248 266 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.4 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 119 122 122 120 112 114 117 117 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -49.2 -49.4 -49.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 37 36 35 37 36 36 36 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 26 25 25 24 21 16 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 47 51 46 56 42 41 29 17 -11 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -36 -7 23 22 31 25 22 4 -36 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 3 7 8 7 11 6 3 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1662 1569 1476 1400 1325 1225 1143 1062 942 816 697 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.8 140.7 141.5 142.2 143.3 144.3 145.4 147.1 149.1 151.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -29. -35. -40. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -23. -30. -37. -46. -55. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.3 138.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/04/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.05 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 843.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.90 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/04/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##