* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/04/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 82 78 74 68 61 56 48 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 82 78 74 68 61 56 48 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 79 74 70 64 58 50 40 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 9 9 8 9 16 22 25 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 1 3 9 7 11 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 241 255 267 242 225 226 249 244 251 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.6 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 118 122 121 118 113 114 114 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.2 -49.5 -49.7 -49.4 -49.3 -49.0 -49.2 -49.6 -50.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 37 38 38 37 40 37 40 38 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 26 25 26 24 23 19 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 48 49 42 54 49 44 25 10 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -32 -45 2 39 23 43 26 18 -18 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 5 0 6 9 9 11 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1756 1657 1558 1481 1403 1277 1191 1113 1002 922 852 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.0 139.0 139.9 140.7 141.4 142.7 143.7 144.7 146.3 147.7 149.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -15. -22. -30. -37. -43. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -17. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -29. -34. -42. -52. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.0 138.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/04/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.01 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 856.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.82 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/04/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 41 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##