* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/03/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 74 69 64 60 55 49 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 74 69 64 60 55 49 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 78 73 68 62 57 51 43 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 11 10 10 17 19 25 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 1 0 1 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 173 251 260 261 228 233 232 240 250 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.6 26.0 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 119 118 122 120 115 113 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -49.4 -49.7 -49.0 -49.2 -49.2 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 37 39 37 37 39 36 37 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 24 22 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 56 56 51 50 58 54 57 33 16 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -3 -42 -45 3 13 39 37 26 -2 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 8 8 3 9 10 13 5 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1841 1751 1662 1574 1486 1344 1251 1159 1080 973 851 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.0 138.9 139.8 140.6 142.0 143.0 144.1 145.3 146.8 148.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -35. -41. -51. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.7 137.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.02 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 835.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.76 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 5 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##