* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/03/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 88 83 78 71 65 59 53 44 34 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 94 88 83 78 71 65 59 53 44 34 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 79 75 67 62 57 50 41 33 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 9 15 12 15 19 24 30 30 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 5 3 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 312 221 247 274 257 236 228 240 241 260 268 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.5 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 125 122 117 122 121 117 114 113 112 114 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.5 -49.1 -48.8 -49.1 -49.2 -49.1 -49.2 -49.4 -49.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 42 39 40 37 39 37 37 36 37 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 27 27 26 27 25 23 22 18 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 66 53 56 49 44 62 51 47 21 -7 -36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -9 -6 -42 -36 19 16 39 26 9 -36 -23 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 7 7 5 7 8 7 5 0 2 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1946 1840 1735 1652 1569 1406 1278 1206 1105 1003 926 838 774 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.2 138.2 139.0 139.8 141.4 142.7 143.6 144.9 146.4 147.9 149.8 152.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 8 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -10. -17. -26. -35. -42. -49. -56. -61. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -29. -35. -41. -47. -56. -66. -73. -74. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.7 136.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 885.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.05 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.80 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.38 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 27 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##