* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/03/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 93 88 83 75 69 65 59 50 40 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 99 93 88 83 75 69 65 59 50 40 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 97 90 84 79 71 66 60 54 45 36 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 4 8 10 12 17 23 28 34 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 3 0 0 2 7 6 11 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 12 46 251 257 275 240 237 235 229 230 247 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 27.0 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 134 127 127 123 117 122 119 113 111 113 112 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.5 -49.5 -49.0 -48.7 -49.2 -48.7 -49.2 -48.9 -49.4 -49.4 -50.0 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 42 41 37 37 37 37 36 37 38 41 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 29 27 27 27 27 26 25 22 18 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 87 74 57 59 50 57 51 49 31 15 -16 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -21 -9 -14 -45 0 -12 21 33 42 16 -16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 4 4 8 8 5 10 9 12 7 6 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2051 1951 1851 1761 1672 1497 1358 1252 1169 1103 1036 934 807 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.1 25.8 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.2 137.1 138.0 138.8 140.5 141.9 143.1 144.2 145.3 146.7 148.6 151.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -27. -37. -45. -53. -60. -66. -70. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -30. -36. -40. -46. -55. -65. -74. -79. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.5 135.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 952.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.38 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 23 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##