* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/03/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 106 102 96 85 78 73 66 60 51 41 34 29 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 110 106 102 96 85 78 73 66 60 51 41 34 29 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 108 101 94 88 78 70 64 57 49 40 31 24 19 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 0 5 11 8 13 20 24 35 43 37 31 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 2 6 7 8 0 6 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 281 319 88 252 274 245 231 234 224 222 238 240 225 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 27.0 26.4 26.3 25.5 26.0 25.8 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.6 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 134 127 126 118 122 120 113 112 113 113 115 121 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.5 -49.6 -49.6 -49.0 -49.0 -48.9 -49.0 -48.8 -49.0 -49.3 -49.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 43 40 40 37 41 39 43 41 44 44 48 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 29 27 27 27 26 24 24 21 17 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 99 90 74 58 55 47 52 42 31 16 5 -18 -26 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 -4 -26 -12 -11 -11 14 24 46 40 30 -32 15 32 55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 5 4 8 6 9 7 12 13 13 12 14 23 29 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2158 2047 1935 1840 1746 1558 1374 1261 1165 1098 1043 971 898 947 1059 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.9 27.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.3 136.3 137.2 138.1 139.9 141.7 142.9 144.1 145.2 146.4 148.2 150.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 12 14 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 8 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -22. -32. -42. -51. -60. -68. -74. -78. -81. -83. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -17. -20. -20. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -19. -30. -37. -42. -49. -55. -64. -74. -81. -86. -90. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.2 134.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 966.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.77 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/03/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 69 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##