* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/02/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 111 107 102 91 82 75 69 61 54 46 39 30 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 115 111 107 102 91 82 75 69 61 54 46 39 30 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 113 105 99 93 83 73 67 61 54 46 37 28 21 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 0 1 7 7 13 15 22 31 33 40 34 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 4 -1 0 4 8 5 17 3 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 101 129 137 183 262 279 223 226 228 222 216 229 243 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.7 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.0 24.9 25.0 24.8 25.3 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 131 134 127 121 121 120 120 112 111 113 112 118 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.7 -49.8 -49.0 -49.4 -48.8 -49.2 -48.9 -49.3 -49.2 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 45 42 39 39 38 40 43 43 42 43 44 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 25 23 20 16 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 101 105 90 78 72 59 60 48 58 36 22 -9 -28 -56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 29 7 -14 -4 -13 10 -17 37 47 51 9 -13 9 39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 5 5 7 7 7 6 16 14 26 19 13 19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2119 2155 2053 1941 1830 1631 1454 1293 1184 1113 1061 1010 956 926 962 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.2 26.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.3 135.2 136.3 137.3 139.2 140.9 142.5 143.7 144.7 145.7 147.1 149.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 12 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -23. -34. -44. -53. -62. -70. -77. -81. -84. -86. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -13. -16. -21. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -18. -29. -38. -45. -51. -59. -66. -74. -81. -90. -93. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.8 133.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 937.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.70 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 43 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##