* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/02/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 118 114 108 96 83 73 65 57 50 43 34 25 20 19 16 V (KT) LAND 125 122 118 114 108 96 83 73 65 57 50 43 34 25 20 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 111 103 98 87 78 69 62 56 49 40 32 25 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 1 1 3 3 11 11 16 20 26 29 34 34 28 28 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 1 3 1 0 -1 7 5 8 1 -1 2 8 2 SHEAR DIR 237 240 74 300 270 273 286 247 234 234 229 218 233 246 242 225 233 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.4 27.0 26.3 25.5 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.9 25.5 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 127 127 134 126 118 123 120 114 113 114 112 113 120 120 116 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -49.5 -49.6 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -49.0 -49.2 -49.1 -49.1 -49.4 -49.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 49 48 42 41 41 42 43 46 42 40 37 41 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 29 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 24 22 17 13 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 116 104 96 96 82 66 62 51 49 49 53 22 -1 -21 -41 -64 -76 200 MB DIV 23 14 17 -2 -16 -4 -19 -7 -8 48 46 46 -36 -4 26 37 -10 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 7 6 7 5 11 6 12 12 12 11 6 27 20 8 LAND (KM) 2035 2098 2158 2062 1956 1746 1538 1375 1241 1127 1048 1008 994 944 914 1003 1235 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.1 136.1 138.1 140.1 141.7 143.1 144.4 145.5 146.6 148.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 11 13 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 2 3 8 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -25. -37. -47. -57. -66. -74. -81. -86. -89. -91. -93. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -13. -17. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -17. -29. -42. -52. -60. -68. -75. -82. -91. -100. -105. -106. -109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.7 132.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 920.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 91 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##