* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/02/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 120 115 109 97 86 75 68 63 56 48 41 31 23 23 25 V (KT) LAND 125 124 120 115 109 97 86 75 68 63 56 48 41 31 23 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 113 105 98 88 79 70 64 59 53 45 36 27 21 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 2 2 3 5 7 12 16 24 31 36 41 26 22 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 5 0 0 4 6 6 10 0 4 5 14 SHEAR DIR 193 213 216 177 182 228 240 266 244 229 219 216 221 244 267 238 221 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.8 25.8 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.4 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 130 129 129 127 124 119 120 120 111 110 112 112 119 122 119 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -49.4 -49.5 -49.7 -49.0 -49.4 -48.8 -49.1 -48.7 -49.2 -49.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 51 50 45 43 44 42 44 45 48 45 44 45 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 30 30 29 29 27 27 27 27 24 21 16 11 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 121 114 106 102 102 71 67 55 58 60 61 43 15 -5 -36 -51 -46 200 MB DIV 11 16 15 6 6 2 -9 -10 0 24 52 57 13 -23 -8 36 86 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 6 8 6 7 6 8 9 14 11 16 13 12 13 32 LAND (KM) 1952 2024 2098 2169 2074 1861 1673 1485 1313 1182 1106 1038 978 926 902 979 1144 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.9 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.2 133.2 134.1 135.0 137.0 138.8 140.6 142.3 143.7 144.7 145.9 147.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 10 11 14 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -34. -45. -55. -63. -72. -79. -83. -86. -89. -91. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 5. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -18. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -16. -28. -39. -50. -57. -62. -69. -77. -84. -94. -102. -102. -100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.5 131.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 893.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.80 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 88 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##