* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/02/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 113 109 105 95 85 78 70 64 58 54 47 41 33 30 29 V (KT) LAND 120 117 113 109 105 95 85 78 70 64 58 54 47 41 33 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 108 101 94 84 77 70 62 57 53 48 41 33 26 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 3 0 5 5 11 10 12 20 30 39 46 36 39 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 0 -2 3 7 8 10 1 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 183 191 217 236 267 285 260 290 259 230 222 223 214 217 229 235 210 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.7 27.0 26.3 25.6 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.1 25.1 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 134 131 130 134 126 119 123 120 117 113 113 112 115 121 122 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 -49.3 -49.6 -49.2 -49.2 -49.0 -49.3 -49.1 -49.3 -49.1 -50.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 49 51 47 46 45 43 42 43 47 49 46 46 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 31 32 31 30 29 27 27 26 26 22 21 18 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 113 122 119 104 103 79 65 58 61 62 55 51 38 28 1 -16 -37 200 MB DIV -3 6 21 25 6 -21 6 -18 -19 15 56 42 41 -5 34 21 35 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 3 5 4 5 5 8 5 9 11 15 21 18 23 18 LAND (KM) 1894 1964 2035 2104 2170 1957 1767 1578 1382 1221 1116 1030 965 912 859 900 1019 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.3 132.3 133.2 134.1 136.1 137.9 139.7 141.6 143.2 144.4 145.6 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 10 13 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 5 5 8 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -30. -40. -49. -57. -64. -70. -75. -78. -81. -83. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -8. -8. -11. -11. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -25. -35. -42. -50. -56. -62. -66. -73. -79. -87. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.2 130.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 847.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/02/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 54 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##