* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/01/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 113 107 102 92 84 76 71 66 61 59 55 47 38 33 29 V (KT) LAND 120 117 113 107 102 92 84 76 71 66 61 59 55 47 38 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 109 102 95 85 79 73 67 62 59 56 50 41 32 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 8 6 4 5 7 6 9 14 21 34 43 50 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 -1 1 -2 2 2 11 8 9 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 149 155 170 176 175 198 290 286 302 215 217 219 215 225 232 240 233 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 132 131 130 127 124 122 122 121 118 115 114 114 121 125 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -49.3 -49.6 -49.0 -49.2 -48.6 -49.3 -48.9 -49.2 -49.6 -50.2 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 51 50 47 43 41 40 38 39 43 48 47 51 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 33 32 31 30 30 29 29 29 27 28 26 23 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 120 124 131 125 110 105 83 76 66 67 67 73 47 43 15 0 -29 200 MB DIV -28 9 8 9 16 13 -6 -17 -8 -10 33 40 66 41 1 36 42 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 1 5 6 3 5 2 5 6 15 14 16 19 21 27 LAND (KM) 1826 1901 1978 2041 2107 2053 1851 1673 1453 1279 1123 1002 917 876 846 789 795 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.4 130.5 131.5 132.4 133.3 135.2 137.1 138.8 140.9 142.6 144.2 145.6 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -29. -39. -47. -55. -62. -67. -71. -75. -78. -81. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -7. -8. -10. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -18. -28. -36. -44. -49. -54. -59. -61. -65. -73. -82. -87. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.1 129.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 836.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.71 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##