* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/01/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 115 111 105 94 85 79 72 64 60 57 54 48 43 38 35 V (KT) LAND 120 118 115 111 105 94 85 79 72 64 60 57 54 48 43 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 111 104 98 86 81 76 70 63 59 55 50 44 36 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 2 4 5 12 9 9 17 27 41 50 42 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 3 0 0 3 6 11 10 -3 5 10 SHEAR DIR 151 146 139 150 172 113 317 288 295 234 225 227 235 231 219 227 220 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.6 27.0 26.4 25.6 26.2 25.9 26.1 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 141 139 133 129 133 127 118 125 122 124 116 118 120 121 120 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.7 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.3 -49.6 -49.1 -49.1 -48.7 -49.1 -49.1 -49.5 -50.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 51 51 49 43 40 41 39 41 42 49 48 50 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 32 31 31 30 30 29 27 27 27 25 23 22 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 121 120 121 127 126 105 88 77 69 61 71 65 63 52 53 25 11 200 MB DIV -17 -23 12 13 8 12 -7 -6 -27 -27 -14 10 43 35 17 61 58 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 5 6 4 10 11 14 21 22 19 LAND (KM) 1760 1823 1890 1967 2047 2158 1957 1757 1579 1391 1206 1054 957 864 766 718 729 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.5 130.4 131.5 132.5 134.2 136.1 138.0 139.7 141.5 143.3 144.9 146.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 8 8 5 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -28. -38. -46. -54. -60. -66. -69. -73. -75. -78. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -15. -26. -35. -41. -48. -56. -60. -63. -66. -72. -77. -82. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.0 128.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 794.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.01 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.76 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 3.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##