* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/01/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 115 110 105 95 87 82 77 69 64 61 57 54 47 43 40 V (KT) LAND 120 118 115 110 105 95 87 82 77 69 64 61 57 54 47 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 110 103 97 85 78 74 69 62 57 53 49 45 38 31 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 8 7 3 1 5 9 9 10 15 21 34 50 49 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 1 2 2 8 4 2 -2 7 SHEAR DIR 154 147 148 145 157 112 189 312 274 276 238 249 238 223 222 216 219 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 141 142 140 131 130 126 120 121 120 118 115 116 118 123 125 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.5 -49.7 -49.0 -49.2 -48.8 -49.5 -49.2 -50.0 -50.5 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 53 50 49 43 41 40 39 37 40 41 48 49 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 30 30 29 29 29 30 28 27 26 25 24 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 125 122 120 124 126 108 103 80 89 71 67 59 58 51 34 20 7 200 MB DIV -14 -17 -16 1 4 3 -2 -3 -28 -15 -9 -7 22 37 23 -3 34 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 4 3 4 5 3 6 6 5 8 11 7 10 18 28 LAND (KM) 1673 1745 1821 1892 1965 2110 2030 1840 1631 1434 1273 1131 1012 909 820 725 625 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.5 129.5 130.5 131.5 133.4 135.4 137.2 139.2 141.1 142.7 144.2 145.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 8 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 11 8 9 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -17. -27. -36. -45. -53. -60. -66. -70. -73. -76. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -25. -33. -38. -43. -51. -56. -59. -63. -66. -73. -77. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.0 127.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 808.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.76 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##