* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 09/01/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 108 104 100 92 87 82 76 71 66 64 62 61 57 52 48 V (KT) LAND 115 111 108 104 100 92 87 82 76 71 66 64 62 61 57 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 103 97 91 82 76 71 68 63 59 55 52 49 43 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 5 7 6 1 6 6 10 13 12 16 19 24 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 1 -4 -2 0 2 0 -1 2 2 4 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 131 162 165 145 141 187 106 326 252 287 258 258 245 236 220 239 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.1 26.6 27.0 26.3 25.5 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.3 25.6 25.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 141 142 135 129 133 126 118 123 120 119 115 119 120 123 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.5 -49.8 -49.1 -49.2 -49.3 -49.4 -49.4 -49.5 -49.7 -50.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 55 53 53 49 45 42 42 40 42 40 45 43 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 30 30 29 29 29 29 27 27 26 25 25 24 21 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 118 124 121 117 121 121 99 81 63 65 56 63 49 45 24 8 -5 200 MB DIV 6 -13 -23 -15 6 1 -1 -16 -2 -46 -11 -4 20 14 20 10 22 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 5 5 3 6 0 8 2 7 4 10 7 2 7 6 LAND (KM) 1611 1669 1729 1800 1874 2015 2158 1978 1788 1578 1372 1202 1073 952 834 740 679 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.3 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.3 128.2 129.3 130.3 132.2 134.1 135.9 137.7 139.7 141.7 143.4 144.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 10 10 5 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -23. -32. -39. -47. -53. -58. -62. -65. -67. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -23. -28. -33. -39. -44. -49. -51. -53. -54. -58. -63. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.7 126.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 717.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 09/01/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##