* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/31/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 106 102 98 92 87 84 81 76 72 70 69 68 67 66 65 V (KT) LAND 115 111 106 102 98 92 87 84 81 76 72 70 69 68 67 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 105 99 93 84 78 75 74 71 66 62 59 57 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 7 5 5 4 2 7 9 10 16 12 15 16 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 6 4 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 117 123 149 144 168 149 86 253 290 268 273 249 251 245 252 280 347 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.7 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.8 26.1 25.6 25.7 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 144 140 141 141 132 130 128 122 120 121 124 119 120 126 124 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.0 -49.4 -49.2 -49.6 -49.4 -49.5 -49.3 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 58 54 53 51 48 44 46 44 42 40 37 38 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 31 31 31 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 27 27 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 120 125 129 127 122 130 107 98 71 69 59 67 61 50 23 23 3 200 MB DIV -25 4 -20 -30 -10 25 3 -13 -4 -22 -27 -16 6 7 -25 -41 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 4 3 4 3 4 5 6 5 3 7 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1566 1626 1689 1748 1811 1945 2107 2063 1852 1662 1464 1269 1079 921 805 694 598 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.4 127.4 128.4 129.3 131.2 133.3 135.1 137.1 138.9 140.8 142.7 144.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 9 8 11 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -30. -37. -45. -51. -56. -59. -62. -64. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -23. -28. -31. -34. -39. -43. -45. -46. -47. -48. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.4 125.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 715.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.10 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##