* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/31/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 108 103 94 86 80 79 75 75 72 72 70 69 67 68 V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 108 103 94 86 80 79 75 75 72 72 70 69 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 111 106 100 89 79 72 71 70 68 65 63 62 59 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 11 9 8 6 3 6 7 10 8 12 11 15 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 6 7 2 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 113 115 136 152 151 126 126 116 307 276 301 235 253 241 246 237 255 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.8 26.2 25.6 25.9 26.0 25.6 25.6 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 144 141 141 133 128 132 125 119 123 123 118 118 123 125 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.1 -49.1 -48.9 -49.3 -49.3 -49.4 -49.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 58 59 58 58 52 51 48 43 44 45 44 41 37 38 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 30 30 30 29 27 29 28 30 29 28 27 26 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 118 121 128 135 130 131 122 101 81 58 58 59 65 59 45 29 11 200 MB DIV -21 -21 2 -6 -26 11 6 3 -25 -5 -35 -28 -5 17 -8 -55 -36 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 2 3 2 5 1 5 4 4 6 6 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1523 1585 1649 1704 1760 1905 2041 2137 1905 1704 1526 1320 1089 936 842 740 606 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.7 126.6 127.5 128.4 130.5 132.5 134.4 136.6 138.5 140.2 142.2 144.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 9 9 9 9 6 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -29. -36. -43. -50. -54. -57. -60. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -1. -3. -0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -7. -12. -21. -29. -35. -36. -40. -40. -43. -43. -45. -46. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.3 124.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 674.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.14 -0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 11.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 5.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##