* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/31/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 128 129 124 116 99 88 77 70 71 67 63 60 60 58 57 59 V (KT) LAND 120 128 129 124 116 99 88 77 70 71 67 63 60 60 58 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 120 128 129 124 115 98 85 75 69 68 65 62 58 56 54 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 12 17 9 8 4 6 8 11 8 14 8 13 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 6 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 106 105 128 145 159 168 148 115 239 290 266 269 246 263 266 303 298 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.1 25.2 26.0 25.7 25.1 25.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 149 146 142 141 128 126 128 123 114 123 119 113 115 121 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.1 -49.6 -49.3 -49.8 -49.6 -50.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 59 59 55 53 53 49 48 51 51 49 43 38 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 31 31 31 29 30 29 28 30 29 29 29 29 27 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 123 120 123 128 132 119 128 106 88 58 52 45 50 44 42 34 43 200 MB DIV -17 -22 -24 3 -10 0 12 0 -16 -9 -22 -8 -25 -26 -18 -4 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 2 5 2 3 3 2 7 5 5 2 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1483 1538 1596 1642 1689 1804 1933 2068 2082 1913 1777 1612 1416 1260 1140 991 819 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.4 129.3 131.2 133.0 134.9 136.5 137.8 139.4 141.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 9 10 10 10 8 4 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -22. -31. -40. -48. -54. -60. -63. -66. -69. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -7. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 13. 11. 5. -0. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 2. 0. -1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 4. -4. -21. -32. -43. -50. -49. -53. -57. -60. -60. -62. -63. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.2 124.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 674.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.14 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.79 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 32.2% 10.1% 4.8% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 8.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.2% 4.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##