* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/31/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 118 120 117 112 97 85 78 72 71 69 69 65 65 63 62 62 V (KT) LAND 110 118 120 117 112 97 85 78 72 71 69 69 65 65 63 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 110 120 122 119 113 98 86 77 69 65 64 63 61 58 54 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 11 12 13 8 5 9 7 7 10 11 10 13 17 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 3 4 5 -1 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 2 2 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 89 101 114 130 143 168 164 144 146 245 258 278 254 293 283 297 258 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.3 26.0 25.4 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 152 151 149 144 143 135 130 128 125 118 115 123 117 113 115 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -49.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 59 59 58 55 54 55 54 53 53 53 47 39 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 31 30 31 30 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 111 121 121 123 127 131 127 118 91 67 52 52 50 53 58 62 56 200 MB DIV -20 -19 -19 -16 -3 -23 2 14 5 -28 1 -19 6 -29 -11 -6 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 3 3 2 7 3 5 4 5 3 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1441 1494 1547 1596 1649 1766 1879 2003 2110 2061 1860 1694 1570 1421 1246 1096 955 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.6 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.1 124.8 125.7 126.6 128.3 130.2 132.0 133.4 135.1 137.0 138.6 139.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 9 9 10 10 10 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -15. -23. -31. -37. -42. -47. -51. -54. -56. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -6. -3. -0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 13. 11. 6. 1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 5. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 7. 2. -13. -25. -32. -38. -39. -41. -41. -45. -45. -47. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.1 123.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.10 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 -1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.76 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.6% 18.8% 16.7% 15.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 7.9% 6.2% 5.8% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.3% 8.9% 5.1% 3.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/31/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##