* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/30/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 79 79 74 71 69 65 65 64 64 65 65 65 64 64 V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 79 79 74 71 69 65 65 64 64 65 65 65 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 81 81 77 73 67 62 59 58 57 56 54 50 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 11 9 16 9 10 9 7 8 8 9 12 15 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 1 7 0 -3 -4 -6 0 0 2 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 103 98 106 119 135 160 171 169 158 207 261 249 266 292 294 296 306 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 26.7 26.3 26.8 26.2 25.3 25.4 25.8 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 152 151 146 143 141 130 126 131 124 115 116 121 114 113 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -50.0 -49.3 -49.8 -49.5 -50.3 -50.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 64 60 58 56 55 53 52 50 53 55 54 50 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 30 28 29 29 27 27 27 27 27 28 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 108 113 121 121 119 136 128 139 110 93 62 52 43 38 30 35 37 200 MB DIV -8 -9 -14 -18 -12 -6 7 22 15 2 -13 -25 -2 -20 -18 -20 -2 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -1 -1 2 4 3 6 6 3 6 9 6 5 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1376 1438 1489 1541 1596 1727 1833 1926 2035 2149 1987 1829 1664 1513 1369 1208 1042 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.3 124.1 125.0 125.8 127.7 129.4 130.9 132.5 134.1 135.8 137.3 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 11 9 10 11 12 8 4 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -4. -6. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 122.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.40 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 19.1% 16.3% 14.6% 11.3% 16.4% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 7.0% 5.5% 4.9% 3.8% 5.5% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 37.0% 22.0% 17.0% 12.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.8% 22.0% 13.7% 10.9% 7.9% 6.7% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##