* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/30/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 73 73 72 69 67 66 66 64 62 62 62 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 73 73 72 69 67 66 66 64 62 62 62 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 75 76 76 74 71 68 64 59 55 53 53 52 50 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 15 10 10 10 6 4 7 5 6 7 10 13 19 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -2 -2 3 0 5 0 -4 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 116 85 76 88 94 120 174 172 178 130 234 257 289 291 308 283 291 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.4 27.8 26.4 25.9 25.7 26.3 26.0 24.6 25.2 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 151 148 138 142 127 121 119 125 123 108 115 111 110 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -50.0 -49.6 -49.9 -49.3 -49.6 -49.5 -49.8 -49.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 66 64 63 63 58 54 51 49 50 49 50 51 50 50 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 29 28 28 27 27 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 107 104 110 120 122 120 123 119 114 89 68 48 47 40 34 33 31 200 MB DIV 41 2 -11 -19 -15 -5 -21 18 14 6 -23 3 -9 -3 -35 -2 -24 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 3 4 8 7 6 0 LAND (KM) 1297 1363 1421 1473 1527 1635 1732 1835 1961 2052 2085 1975 1811 1643 1484 1358 1255 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.7 123.6 124.4 125.2 126.8 128.6 130.3 132.0 133.4 134.5 135.9 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 14 9 9 11 7 11 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.3 121.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 19.6% 17.1% 15.3% 12.0% 17.9% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 7.5% 5.9% 5.2% 4.0% 6.0% 4.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 23.0% 10.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.5% 15.2% 7.9% 6.1% 4.5% 4.0% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##