* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/30/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 65 66 67 67 67 64 63 62 59 58 57 56 51 46 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 65 66 67 67 67 64 63 62 59 58 57 56 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 67 67 67 68 66 62 59 55 51 49 47 43 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 12 13 12 11 5 6 4 6 7 14 21 31 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 0 -7 -6 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 134 123 83 64 73 87 128 149 143 129 169 242 258 272 282 283 274 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.7 26.8 27.3 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.3 24.0 24.1 23.1 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 154 152 150 141 131 136 116 112 108 104 101 102 91 93 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -49.5 -49.9 -49.5 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 66 62 59 53 52 50 53 56 56 50 47 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 28 30 30 31 32 31 31 31 29 30 30 32 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 122 113 113 115 121 119 126 109 126 97 81 50 57 44 63 49 31 200 MB DIV 81 60 14 -5 -7 -9 -26 -16 18 26 -10 -5 -1 23 -2 -34 -41 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 1 -1 0 1 2 5 3 2 4 4 3 -2 -13 LAND (KM) 1228 1278 1331 1390 1439 1549 1628 1735 1837 1907 1916 1901 1914 1927 1870 1802 1759 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.4 19.2 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.3 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.5 122.3 123.2 124.1 125.7 127.2 129.2 130.6 131.9 133.1 134.2 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 11 11 11 11 9 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -14. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.2 120.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 20.9% 17.6% 15.5% 12.2% 18.5% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.5% 6.2% 5.4% 4.1% 6.2% 4.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 7.7% 5.1% 4.7% 3.5% 4.6% 4.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##