* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/30/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 65 67 67 67 62 60 56 53 50 49 46 42 39 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 65 67 67 67 62 60 56 53 50 49 46 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 62 63 63 63 61 58 55 50 46 43 40 34 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 11 16 16 12 8 4 3 3 8 12 15 17 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 2 0 -2 1 0 2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 140 119 104 77 65 89 104 114 122 114 171 268 264 270 266 278 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 26.8 27.3 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.0 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 154 153 153 151 146 132 136 116 113 110 101 94 97 98 93 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 -49.1 -49.2 -49.2 -49.5 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 68 66 63 60 56 49 46 49 51 51 53 49 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 31 31 30 31 32 33 31 31 30 28 27 28 25 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 114 127 124 125 134 130 131 130 126 123 82 47 36 29 14 25 11 200 MB DIV 106 83 66 28 0 -7 2 -14 4 8 27 0 -14 -5 -10 -16 -21 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 2 6 7 11 7 6 LAND (KM) 1197 1232 1275 1329 1377 1481 1574 1663 1795 1870 1888 1869 1871 1874 1882 1898 1795 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.9 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.7 121.6 122.4 123.2 125.0 126.4 128.1 130.2 131.5 132.2 133.2 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 8 8 8 8 7 10 9 6 5 7 7 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 9 10 11 11 12 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 321 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. -1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -18. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.8 119.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.53 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 23.7% 19.5% 16.7% 13.2% 19.8% 15.6% 11.7% Logistic: 1.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.9% 6.7% 5.7% 4.4% 6.7% 5.3% 3.9% DTOPS: 10.0% 48.0% 23.0% 19.0% 18.0% 35.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.3% 28.4% 14.8% 12.3% 11.2% 20.8% 5.1% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/30/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##