* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/29/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 70 73 73 73 70 68 67 62 62 59 55 51 46 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 70 73 73 73 70 68 67 62 62 59 55 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 64 65 66 68 70 68 65 62 58 55 50 43 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 9 10 17 14 14 6 6 4 4 7 16 17 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 6 5 3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 0 -1 5 1 2 SHEAR DIR 189 144 132 108 73 83 108 128 146 191 219 224 269 254 273 264 275 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.8 26.7 27.0 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.0 22.9 22.8 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 152 153 154 153 150 142 130 132 118 113 109 101 89 89 89 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.6 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.6 -49.0 -49.4 -49.1 -49.4 -49.3 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 73 70 66 62 59 51 50 52 51 54 58 58 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 33 32 32 33 30 31 30 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 93 110 126 128 131 147 141 146 124 130 96 81 58 54 37 52 49 200 MB DIV 102 109 75 55 40 4 16 -2 16 2 13 0 -1 -3 5 -6 -15 700-850 TADV 8 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 3 3 4 6 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1151 1181 1207 1251 1299 1425 1511 1604 1719 1780 1808 1852 1865 1827 1768 1755 1822 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.3 120.3 121.1 121.9 123.9 125.4 127.0 129.1 130.3 131.0 131.9 133.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 9 9 7 9 9 6 5 7 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 9 8 10 12 11 10 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 4. 4. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 13. 10. 8. 7. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.1 118.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/29/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 36.5% 22.2% 18.2% 14.2% 21.0% 16.7% 12.7% Logistic: 6.5% 19.0% 5.9% 4.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 19.5% 9.8% 7.8% 4.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 17.0% 46.0% 22.0% 19.0% 17.0% 47.0% 18.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.6% 32.7% 15.9% 13.4% 10.9% 27.1% 11.8% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/29/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##