* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/29/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 62 69 73 77 76 78 75 72 68 65 64 60 56 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 62 69 73 77 76 78 75 72 68 65 64 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 56 58 63 69 74 77 77 74 70 64 57 50 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 9 5 6 13 8 4 4 2 3 7 9 13 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 -3 1 1 6 4 5 2 2 SHEAR DIR 212 190 183 125 109 43 63 81 126 200 232 246 229 274 264 272 262 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.6 27.9 26.6 27.4 26.2 25.3 25.0 24.5 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 151 152 149 150 142 129 137 124 114 111 106 94 90 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.1 -49.4 -49.1 -49.5 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 76 74 72 69 66 60 53 46 44 42 40 38 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 27 27 30 32 33 32 33 32 30 28 26 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 74 80 94 107 124 138 152 139 140 127 143 122 104 61 59 43 52 200 MB DIV 135 130 100 108 89 49 30 34 14 19 7 17 6 12 5 12 -3 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 5 6 10 5 3 LAND (KM) 1173 1179 1197 1229 1248 1320 1462 1542 1597 1686 1797 1851 1833 1813 1797 1786 1754 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.0 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.5 118.4 119.4 120.3 121.8 123.7 125.3 126.6 128.2 130.0 131.1 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 6 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 24 21 11 6 10 8 9 2 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):309/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 4. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 23. 21. 23. 20. 17. 13. 10. 9. 5. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 116.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/29/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 4.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 46.3% 36.7% 27.6% 19.4% 26.0% 19.8% 15.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.8% 6.0% 4.1% 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 21.6% 14.6% 10.7% 6.7% 9.3% 6.7% 5.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 39.0% 17.0% 16.0% 17.0% 54.0% 25.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.9% 30.3% 15.8% 13.3% 11.8% 31.6% 15.8% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/29/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##