* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/29/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 75 83 86 89 85 82 78 74 68 65 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 75 83 86 89 85 82 78 74 68 65 62 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 63 65 71 80 87 89 86 79 73 67 60 54 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 7 5 4 7 8 8 8 5 3 3 3 5 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 4 6 5 0 -1 1 -3 0 4 4 3 12 0 0 SHEAR DIR 224 240 188 175 133 75 45 73 92 143 137 192 95 289 277 280 280 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.1 26.7 26.4 27.0 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 157 156 150 150 148 145 129 126 132 120 116 110 102 95 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.9 -49.3 -49.8 -48.9 -49.0 -48.6 -48.7 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 76 73 72 66 66 60 53 45 43 43 41 39 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 28 27 28 29 30 33 33 33 34 33 30 29 27 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 72 76 83 99 112 130 143 133 135 139 131 123 128 115 89 71 62 200 MB DIV 169 129 110 101 105 51 22 11 22 36 -2 20 1 13 -16 -1 -26 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 2 2 1 0 -1 0 0 2 2 4 3 11 14 7 LAND (KM) 1178 1172 1177 1193 1205 1274 1373 1437 1558 1638 1694 1772 1858 1879 1800 1774 1836 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.8 117.7 118.6 119.4 121.2 122.9 124.3 126.2 127.7 128.8 130.0 131.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 29 22 19 5 11 9 11 3 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 6. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 28. 31. 34. 30. 27. 23. 19. 13. 10. 7. 4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 115.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/29/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 12.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 9.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -11.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 9.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 12.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 8.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.4% 66.5% 53.4% 43.9% 32.3% 40.9% 27.4% 15.9% Logistic: 17.3% 52.2% 29.4% 26.1% 3.2% 15.1% 1.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.3% 21.7% 29.1% 14.2% 0.7% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 46.8% 37.3% 28.1% 12.1% 20.5% 10.0% 5.4% DTOPS: 13.0% 47.0% 26.0% 12.0% 9.0% 26.0% 20.0% 4.0% SDCON: 15.1% 46.9% 31.6% 20.0% 10.5% 23.2% 15.0% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/29/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##