* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/28/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 78 84 86 85 82 81 79 74 71 66 62 59 57 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 78 84 86 85 82 81 79 74 71 66 62 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 70 75 80 83 87 87 81 74 69 63 57 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 7 9 5 1 9 6 9 6 7 7 9 11 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 3 3 9 -4 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 5 1 SHEAR DIR 221 234 248 223 208 168 134 90 96 139 186 219 240 241 266 268 275 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.1 26.3 26.7 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 156 151 149 149 144 134 125 130 117 113 111 109 95 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -48.7 -49.2 -48.8 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 76 72 70 67 65 61 57 50 46 45 47 50 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 32 34 32 32 30 28 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 59 68 71 77 84 115 119 124 117 127 110 127 108 108 85 75 42 200 MB DIV 123 142 105 103 86 68 43 1 11 13 35 2 10 11 18 -1 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 7 1 2 0 1 0 1 3 4 3 7 8 8 LAND (KM) 1191 1158 1139 1151 1175 1214 1295 1393 1489 1575 1661 1733 1803 1837 1807 1772 1732 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.2 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.1 116.9 117.8 118.7 120.5 122.2 123.8 125.6 127.1 128.4 129.7 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 29 28 19 11 8 12 11 5 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 0. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 31. 30. 27. 26. 24. 19. 16. 11. 7. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.4 115.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/28/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 14.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 11.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -12.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 10.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 13.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 5.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.7% 73.6% 62.7% 55.0% 39.5% 54.8% 39.1% 16.3% Logistic: 22.8% 55.1% 31.9% 28.7% 8.3% 15.3% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 27.9% 46.5% 50.7% 30.1% 4.7% 15.5% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 29.1% 58.4% 48.4% 37.9% 17.5% 28.5% 14.2% 5.6% DTOPS: 31.0% 53.0% 36.0% 18.0% 12.0% 16.0% 31.0% 4.0% SDCON: 30.0% 55.7% 42.2% 27.9% 14.7% 22.2% 22.6% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/28/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##