* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 63 69 73 75 77 78 77 74 73 68 64 61 57 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 63 69 73 75 77 78 77 74 73 68 64 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 58 62 67 72 76 79 79 77 72 65 58 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 1 8 11 9 8 4 7 8 11 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 2 4 6 7 4 -2 1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 298 267 258 248 229 191 91 83 93 82 142 151 210 254 243 255 260 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.1 25.4 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 159 155 155 153 144 141 138 134 123 116 103 101 99 94 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.5 -48.8 -49.3 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 82 79 78 76 72 71 68 63 58 55 48 47 50 51 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 27 29 29 29 29 31 33 33 32 32 30 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 64 73 77 100 132 127 116 118 137 109 119 93 85 49 28 200 MB DIV 143 120 121 121 111 100 72 56 8 7 -4 39 10 16 -9 1 0 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -5 0 3 7 -1 1 0 0 0 0 5 8 7 8 9 LAND (KM) 1230 1194 1156 1133 1121 1137 1144 1250 1329 1435 1536 1585 1591 1620 1595 1543 1495 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.6 17.7 18.3 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.8 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.6 115.3 116.1 116.9 118.6 120.1 122.0 123.6 125.2 126.7 127.9 128.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 31 31 27 18 16 8 8 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. 32. 29. 28. 23. 19. 16. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 113.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -8.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 5.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 49.9% 36.3% 26.3% 17.0% 36.3% 58.7% 21.2% Logistic: 10.6% 45.4% 25.4% 18.5% 3.0% 10.0% 2.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 12.6% 23.1% 25.1% 7.1% 0.7% 11.5% 8.7% 0.3% Consensus: 12.3% 39.5% 28.9% 17.3% 6.9% 19.3% 23.2% 7.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 32.0% 19.0% 11.0% 10.0% 24.0% 44.0% 31.0% SDCON: 8.1% 35.7% 23.9% 14.1% 8.4% 21.6% 33.6% 19.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/28/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##