* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/28/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 60 68 74 85 87 86 85 82 81 78 74 69 64 60 57 V (KT) LAND 45 53 60 68 74 85 87 86 85 82 81 78 74 69 64 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 64 69 77 83 88 90 89 88 86 82 75 68 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 4 6 7 6 7 4 5 6 8 10 7 7 7 8 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 1 2 3 11 6 4 -2 -1 -3 0 0 7 6 11 SHEAR DIR 288 296 253 248 230 162 168 65 90 64 95 152 144 227 233 264 256 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 28.9 29.0 28.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.8 25.1 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 159 159 154 155 152 142 142 139 133 123 119 113 97 97 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -49.9 -50.4 -49.4 -49.7 -49.5 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -49.2 -49.7 -49.0 -49.1 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 79 79 78 74 72 66 65 61 54 48 46 47 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 28 29 30 29 30 31 32 33 34 33 31 28 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 50 61 65 89 103 119 120 117 129 135 127 119 94 71 53 200 MB DIV 180 148 132 121 125 87 101 63 14 -2 21 53 49 42 -10 5 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -1 0 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 8 9 16 LAND (KM) 1166 1176 1187 1145 1113 1101 1109 1151 1267 1360 1458 1529 1568 1568 1522 1512 1427 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.6 16.9 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.1 113.9 114.7 115.4 117.1 118.6 120.4 122.2 123.8 125.4 126.7 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 24 25 29 26 18 13 7 8 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 23. 29. 40. 42. 42. 40. 37. 36. 33. 29. 24. 19. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.6 112.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/28/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 16.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 10.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -14.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.86 12.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 8.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 70% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.4% 72.6% 62.0% 53.2% 37.3% 69.6% 68.3% 26.4% Logistic: 30.1% 73.5% 54.1% 48.9% 11.2% 46.3% 13.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 23.8% 69.1% 77.7% 51.1% 9.8% 44.3% 17.9% 1.3% Consensus: 29.4% 71.7% 64.6% 51.1% 19.4% 53.4% 33.3% 10.2% DTOPS: 19.0% 48.0% 30.0% 20.0% 16.0% 17.0% 29.0% 43.0% SDCON: 24.2% 59.8% 47.3% 35.5% 17.7% 35.2% 31.1% 26.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/28/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##