* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112026 08/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 59 66 74 81 81 78 74 73 70 67 62 59 55 49 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 59 66 74 81 81 78 74 73 70 67 62 59 55 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 56 63 70 73 72 71 70 68 65 61 55 48 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 9 6 8 6 8 7 3 6 4 4 4 12 19 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 2 0 1 9 9 10 -2 0 0 -3 -2 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 309 285 297 296 270 239 188 180 89 92 91 122 194 223 254 246 253 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.5 27.1 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.6 22.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 162 162 161 159 156 154 151 138 134 120 118 113 107 87 82 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 85 84 82 80 80 76 71 69 63 56 52 49 51 56 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 24 26 26 30 29 28 27 27 28 28 26 24 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 57 54 56 65 84 104 108 111 124 120 98 95 56 13 -6 200 MB DIV 156 163 146 135 109 100 106 88 27 5 25 -4 12 14 -2 -3 3 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -2 -4 -3 5 8 -1 2 0 0 2 3 7 13 13 8 LAND (KM) 1183 1203 1234 1240 1202 1145 1135 1125 1190 1235 1274 1307 1329 1327 1312 1303 1253 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 25 23 32 31 26 16 11 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 17. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 10. 11. 11. 9. 10. 10. 9. 5. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 8. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 26. 34. 41. 41. 38. 34. 33. 30. 27. 22. 19. 15. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.7 111.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112026 KARINA 08/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 13.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -10.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.86 9.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.76 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 62.7% 43.4% 31.8% 19.3% 54.5% 65.9% 54.4% Logistic: 17.4% 70.2% 44.3% 35.7% 8.4% 39.0% 15.4% 3.0% Bayesian: 27.1% 74.0% 68.3% 44.5% 7.9% 53.2% 38.6% 3.6% Consensus: 19.5% 69.0% 52.0% 37.3% 11.9% 48.9% 40.0% 20.4% DTOPS: 14.0% 38.0% 15.0% 4.0% 3.0% 17.0% 30.0% 78.0% SDCON: 16.7% 53.5% 33.5% 20.6% 7.4% 32.9% 35.0% 49.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112026 KARINA 08/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##