* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 30 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 30 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 33 30 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 29 33 38 37 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 3 2 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 250 250 250 256 278 272 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.2 23.6 23.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 112 107 102 94 98 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 48 46 40 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 14 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 24 2 2 6 -23 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -4 19 26 2 -21 -19 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 4 3 14 4 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1123 1176 1234 1296 1360 1427 1491 1573 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.4 126.2 127.1 127.9 129.8 131.6 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -26. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.5 124.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.31 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 11.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##