* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 56 52 45 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 58 56 52 45 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 55 51 44 36 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 22 21 19 22 36 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 2 4 1 8 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 270 270 283 285 252 252 275 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 24.8 23.3 23.7 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 127 124 111 95 99 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 55 54 53 45 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 24 21 19 16 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 37 47 41 25 30 2 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 23 9 -15 -5 11 18 -29 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 2 0 -6 0 10 1 11 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 996 1047 1087 1132 1226 1396 1484 1578 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.5 124.3 126.0 128.1 130.0 131.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -23. -30. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.8 120.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 14.8% 11.6% 10.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.9% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/25/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##