* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 54 49 42 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 58 54 49 42 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 57 54 47 39 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 23 22 22 18 28 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 2 4 5 8 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 276 270 271 284 268 247 256 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 25.9 24.5 23.2 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 137 134 133 130 121 107 94 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.1 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 58 54 52 49 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 25 24 22 19 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 43 48 43 36 25 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 58 40 35 -5 -3 9 8 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 8 8 -3 9 2 10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 909 925 940 1004 1071 1163 1243 1439 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.4 23.2 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.4 121.1 122.2 123.2 124.9 126.3 128.6 130.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -25. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.4 119.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.39 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 16.7% 13.4% 12.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.6% 4.5% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/25/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##