* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 63 63 56 50 42 36 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 63 63 56 50 42 36 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 61 59 53 45 38 31 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 22 22 20 17 16 21 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -2 0 3 3 11 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 280 275 270 275 289 262 251 261 277 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.5 24.1 23.9 24.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 141 136 134 128 118 103 102 105 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.7 -50.0 -49.9 -49.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 62 60 56 54 46 41 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 25 26 23 20 17 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 33 41 48 31 36 11 20 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 67 62 48 26 -2 -3 5 -23 -24 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -9 -8 0 -2 0 8 0 12 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 887 924 965 1015 1110 1227 1378 1534 1640 1787 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.5 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.1 120.0 121.0 122.0 123.7 125.5 127.5 129.6 131.8 134.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. -3. -10. -18. -24. -31. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.6 118.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 22.6% 18.3% 15.5% 12.2% 16.9% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.7% 6.2% 5.2% 4.1% 5.6% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 5.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##