* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 68 64 59 52 41 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 68 64 59 52 41 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 67 66 61 54 45 37 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 19 23 20 15 21 31 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 0 -1 3 3 9 4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 269 281 272 271 288 264 250 247 270 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.0 24.8 23.9 24.5 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 139 135 132 123 111 102 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 61 60 56 52 50 45 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 23 25 24 22 19 15 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 32 32 41 42 45 41 18 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 73 64 70 37 -9 18 5 4 -24 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -9 -6 0 -7 10 -1 17 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 868 879 903 947 978 1085 1186 1322 1493 1619 1743 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.5 119.3 120.3 121.3 123.1 124.8 126.7 128.8 130.9 133.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 15 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -11. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 4. -1. -8. -19. -24. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 117.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.29 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 29.3% 20.8% 17.7% 14.0% 19.2% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 10.1% 7.0% 5.9% 4.7% 6.4% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.1% 8.5% 5.5% 4.4% 3.3% 3.7% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##