* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 61 62 58 54 46 40 34 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 61 62 58 54 46 40 34 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 62 63 61 56 49 42 35 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 20 18 18 16 15 23 28 23 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 2 1 0 2 5 8 0 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 293 281 284 276 275 284 246 235 250 271 255 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.0 27.1 26.7 25.6 24.4 23.9 24.6 24.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 151 151 144 134 130 119 106 101 109 107 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 65 62 59 55 55 51 51 46 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 22 23 25 23 21 17 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 26 31 34 50 42 53 24 32 11 5 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 50 45 49 40 36 -6 25 1 -17 -14 -16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 -8 -8 -1 -1 9 4 8 1 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 870 860 853 885 926 992 1094 1231 1356 1517 1631 1726 1821 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.5 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.1 119.0 119.8 121.6 123.4 125.4 127.2 129.1 131.1 133.1 135.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 18 13 16 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 0. -2. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 3. -1. -9. -15. -21. -25. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 116.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.77 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 26.3% 20.0% 17.0% 13.0% 20.9% 15.3% 8.4% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.6% 6.8% 5.7% 4.4% 7.0% 5.1% 2.8% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.4% 9.8% 6.4% 4.8% 3.7% 4.5% 2.5% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##