* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092026 08/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 63 68 65 63 57 49 42 36 33 28 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 63 68 65 63 57 49 42 36 33 28 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 59 61 58 54 47 40 33 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 14 13 19 21 16 17 23 25 24 27 26 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -3 0 -1 0 4 5 5 5 3 2 2 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 313 294 280 279 270 284 283 255 244 245 255 249 263 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.6 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.1 24.1 24.0 24.1 23.9 24.4 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 152 150 137 131 126 114 103 102 103 102 108 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -49.7 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -50.8 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 68 64 60 55 55 52 53 53 52 51 47 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 24 23 26 25 24 23 20 17 14 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 30 27 30 46 56 58 55 45 29 13 2 -14 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 23 26 36 35 33 1 -6 4 13 -6 -12 -31 -4 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -5 0 0 -6 5 -3 9 9 11 10 7 11 10 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 843 846 836 839 854 937 1023 1128 1289 1433 1540 1612 1735 1927 1640 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.5 117.1 117.9 118.7 120.6 122.3 124.1 126.2 128.1 129.7 131.5 133.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 11 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 18 20 13 13 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 15. 13. 7. -1. -8. -14. -17. -22. -26. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.79 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 44.2% 26.7% 19.3% 14.1% 25.5% 18.2% 11.3% Logistic: 4.9% 11.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 18.9% 9.7% 6.9% 5.0% 8.7% 6.1% 3.8% DTOPS: 7.0% 18.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.6% 18.4% 9.3% 5.9% 4.5% 6.3% 3.5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092026 ISELLE 08/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##